FLIGHT TO THE CITIES (2)

It is widely known that there is currently a population shift in Denmark from the countryside to the cities. New projections by the statistical office show that this trend will continue.

Of the ten local authorities projected to have the most growth in people between 2014 and 2030, eight of them are in the greater Copenhagen area and all by more than 10%; Copenhagen Kommune, essentially the inner city, will grow by an extraordinary 27%. The other two in the top ten are Aarhus, the second city, and Horsens in Jutland.

At the bottom of the list, with shrinking populations, are a number of islands (Ærø, Samsø, Bornholm, Læsø and Langeland) and the depressed areas of Lolland and Falster, at the southern end of Zealand. Lolland is expected to lose around a sixth of its population, probably the most productive people, which will put a big strain on those left behind.

On Fünen, where I live, the only local authority projected to grow is that of Odense, the main town. All the others will shrink (though by less than 10%).

Large population shifts within countries can be very destabilising. Those services which are most needed in declining areas - healthcare, support for the elderly - are precisely those which find it difficult to attract young people. Entrepreneurs prefer to start new businesses in places where there are customers. Houses left vacant can quickly become derelict. It can become a vicious circle.

Some people might say "so what?". Eventually, prices will fall so far that it becomes economic to move to poorer areas. However, if you are a rich country that prides itself on its egalitarianism, such a laissez-faire attitude is not really an option. The problem is that alternative policies are not easy to see.

Walter Blotscher