UKRAINE

What is one to make of the goings-on in Ukraine? It does seem incredible that things can happen today in Europe - political unrest, violent demonstrations, killings by security forces - which are more normally associated with Egypt, Thailand, or Libya.

I think that the key word in that paragraph is Europe. For while the northern, southern and western borders of Europe have been settled for a long time, the eastern one has always been, and (crucially) remains, much more fluid. The word Ukraine itself means border, a big wodge of land between two even bigger blocks of land, namely the E.U. and Russia. Indeed, a large part of the conflict there seems to be between the Ukrainian-speaking population, who want to move closer to, and eventually become part of, the E.U., and the Russian-speaking population, who look to their fellow-speakers even further east.

At the moment, it seems that the pro-E.U. forces have won. Politically, I think that that move is decisive. However, Russia can still cause a lot of problems economically, notably by cutting off the gas supply, on which Ukraine depends. The price of not doing so may be the secession of the eastern part of the country to be swallowed back into Russia.

The splitting up of a European country? Well, Czechoslovakia did it. So too did Yugoslavia, and then Serbia. Scotland is trying to do it as we speak. Ukraine may merely be the latest.

Walter Blotscher