THE COST OF AGEING

A theme of this blog has been the looming crunch in Denmark (and elsewhere) caused by the growth in the number of old people. The number of 80-year olds here, for example, is projected to increase by 30% over the next 10 years, from 233,000 to 304,000. Looking after 80-year olds is expensive.

Just how expensive is shown by new figures. Annual spending on health and social care costs, on average, is around Dkr.26,000 for someone aged 30, a figure that changes very little over the next twenty years or so. After 50, social care costs remain unchanged, but health care costs begin to rise, so that the annual total is around Dkr.40,000 on average for a 60-year old.

Thereafter, costs explode. It costs Dkr.56,000 a year to look after a 70-year old, Dkr.104,000 for an 80-year old and a whopping Dkr.163,000 for a 90-year old. Social care in their situation costs more than the total cost for a 70-year old.

Given that the pensioners of the future have already been born, this is is not a problem that is going to go away. What is beginning to happen is the start of a long-delayed debate about what older people can expect to receive from the state in terms of support, and what should be provided by either the elderly themselves or their relatives. The generation in their sixties has a very nice life; money in their pockets, no obligation to work any more, good health and a long (30-year) life expectancy. Should they expect the state (i.e. the rest of us, through our taxes) to continue to support them in that life, or should they do more themselves? That debate will be sharp-edged, perhaps bitter, at times; but it is good that it has begun.

Walter Blotscher