SYRIA (5)

To use a film analogy, Syria is looking increasingly like the third episode of the franchise Ill-Judged Foreign Intervention, following on from Ill-Judged Foreign Intervention I (Afghanistan) and Ill-Judged Foreign Intervention II (Iraq).

The plots of these films - and, since they take place for the vast majority of us on screens, they look pretty much like films - are remarkably similar. Bad things take place in far away places. Egoistic politicians, notably in medium-sized countries such as the U.K. and France that think they are still Great Powers, opine that "something must be done". Specious arguments about national security are usually added to the mix. Preparations are made for military intervention.

Since foreign military intervention in sovereign states is illegal under international law, attempts are made to get backing from the U.N. Security Council. These attempts get blocked, usually because Russia or China issues a veto. This is not acceptable to the egoistic politicians, so they seek ways to get round the impasse. Most of these are weasly, but are vigorously defended on the grounds of "moral imperative", "we owe it to the next generation" etc etc. Then there is military action; which goes on for a while, until everybody tires of it, and the same egoistic politicians try to get out of the mess that they have got into, while at the same time trumpeting its supposed successes. The country in question is left with a a lot of dead bodies, rubble and mess. But it's usually low level and so no longer makes the screens.

In the Syrian case, we haven't reached the end of the film, but we are coming to the last reel. Military intervention may well take place next week.

In saying this, I am in no way condoning what is happening in Syria. There are a lot of very bad people there, on both sides of the dispute. My point is merely that if large numbers of people want to kill each other in a modern state, then there is in fact very little that outsiders can do to stop it, unless and until the internal parties are ready to stop it. And there is much those outsiders can do to make it worse. You don't have to look to the Middle East or Central Asia to have this confirmed, what about Northern Ireland or even somewhere such as South Africa? It is only when the internal parties are willing to make the necessary compromises that the country concerned can move forward. External actors can nudge and prod, but they can't force compromise on people who don't want it.

In Syria, they don't want it; not yet, at any rate. But the powers in the West are not yet willing to accept that. The franchise still has life in it.

Walter Blotscher