REARRANGING THE DECKCHAIRS

There was a Government reshuffle in Denmark yesterday, almost exactly halfway through its 4-year term. Within the three party coalition, the main changes were to give the Social Democrats under Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt the business and growth portfolio, and the Socialists a beefed-up ministry dealing with social affairs. This was designed to allow the respective parties to play to their supposed traditional strengths.

The other main change was to bring in Henrik Sass Larsen, long Ms. Thorning-Schmidt's lieutenant and heir apparent, as that Business Minister. Mr. Sass Larsen was widely tipped to be Finance Minister after the election, but got tangled up (in rather murky circumstances) in a failed security clearance procedure, owing to links to a childhood friend who is now a member of a biker gang. He was partially rehabilitated a year ago, when he became head of the party's Parliamentary group; yesterday marks his complete return.

It's an indication of his value to the Prime Minister that the headline in my Danish newspaper this morning said "Sass to secure Thorning's reelection". While Mr. Sass Larsen will undoubtedly play a leading role in Government over the next two years, getting it reelected is probably beyond the power of any one man. The S/SF alliance currently sits at just over 30% in the opinion polls, one of which put the Social Democrats (the traditional powerhouse in Denmark and Scandinavia generally for almost all of the 20th century) below the far-right Danish People's Party. Polls go up and polls go down, but that must have been a particularly bitter pill to have to swallow.

The reshuffle was presented as paving the way for an ambitious Government programme in the second half of its life. I saw it more as rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. From the very start I have predicted that the next Danish Government will be a right-of-centre one under former Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen. I am sticking to that view.

Walter Blotscher