DANISH POLITICS

The current three-party Danish Government is not yet a year old, but is already in trouble. At the general election, the three parties, together with the very left-wing Enhedslisten (supporting them, but not formerly part of the Government) got 89 seats, to the opposition's 86. According to the latest opinion polls, that would now be 78-97 against. Indeed, it's even worse than that, since Enhedslisten have themselves progressed from 12 seats to a predicted 16.

Running a country in the midst of a financial crisis is never easy, even if a large part of the blame can be laid at the door of one's predecessors. However, the negative economic situation is compounded by a perception - long held by me - that Helle Thorning-Schmidt (the Prime Minister) and Villy Søvndal (the Foreign Minister) are simply not up to the job. The main beneficiary of this perception is the former Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, whose Venstre party, already the largest, has surged ahead from 47 seats to a predicted 57.

Governments do not of course change until the next general election, not due for three more years. But I don't think that this one will last that long. A tax reform earlier in the summer alienated Enhedlisten, who are now looking to get their revenge by imposing conditions into the 2013 Finance Act. One of these will almost certainly be an easing of the dole rules. At the moment, up to 20,000 unemployed are liable to lose their right to the dole on 1 January 2013, a development which (apart from the human problem) will adversely affect the housing market and Government revenues. The coalition is already arguing about whether, and if so how, to deal with this problem; but such discussions and disunity merely add to the perception I mentioned above.

All in all, it's not a good time to be running Denmark. Lars Løkke will be fancying his chances of a return to office, and sooner rather than later. I agree with him.

Walter Blotscher