GREECE (8)

My last post on Greece got me into trouble with one of my regular readers; I was accused of sloppy thinking. Yet my prediction that a) the previous election would not result in a Government, so b) there would be a new election, in which c) the Greek electorate would "sullenly" give New Democracy/Pasok a narrow Parliamentary majority, turned out to be spot on. In the second election today, the two parties increased their total seats in the 300-strong Parliament from 149 to 162, enough to form a coalition. New Democracy, as before, bagged the extra 50 seats given to the winning party, and increased their total by 21; Pasok continued to slide, losing 8.

I also think that sullen was a pretty good description. As a percentage of the vote, Pasok/ND got 42% between them, which is hardly a ringing endorsement of their pitch to back the bail-out. Furthermore, the abstention rate rose from 34% on 6 May to 40% today, which suggests a certain apathy or disgust with the whole political process. The big winner was the left-wing Syriza party, which had campaigned on the (in my view, fanciful) policy that Greece could both stay in the euro and tear up the existing bail-out deal. They came second with 27% of the vote, and increased their representation from 52 seats to 71. Fringe parties on both the right and left were the big losers.

Because of their lukewarm support, Pasok/ND are talking about trying to renegotiate the terms of the bail-out. Headgirl Angela Merkel has already said publicly that this isn't on, and I suspect that she means it. Any concessions made to the new Greek Government will be cosmetic. There will be no alternative to the austerity medicine prescribed by the Germans.

Walter Blotscher